More Positive Economic Indicators from China’s Consumers

Consumer Confidence Jan-18

January saw the Index move slightly downward, but it is still living at its high range for the last 13-months. The average for that period has been 116.1. The trend line for the year has been steadily upward in a way that is consistent with many of the other of China’s economic indices. Consumer confidence equates to consumer spending. A good thing.  Sources:; Nat’l Bureau of Statistics, China

China’s Leading Economic Index Continues to Look Good

Leading Economic Index - Dec-17

Earlier this week we reported on the relatively steady nine month trend in China’s Consumer Price Index. Today we can write essentially the same soothing words about the steadiness of China’s Leading Economic Index. In spite of a slight decline in December, the outlook for the future, based “on a group of eight indicators reflecting different aspects of economic activity,” is on the positive side.   Source: National Bureau of Statistics, China

Two Years after the One-Child Policy

Birth Rates in china

The good news for Chinese policy makers is that the end of the one child policy has led to an increase in the number of second-child births.  The bad news is the changing dynamics of the Chinese family are acting as a counterweight. As policy-makers had hoped there has been a 23.4% increase in second child births in 2017 when compared to the first year of the new policy. However, policy-makers did not count on new families to postpone having their first child at an even higher rate, 27.6%. Result: the total number of births in china were down 3.5% in 2017.

The long-term consequence of these data is unclear until we see a multi-year trend. Still, it gives planners something to watch. The change from the one-child policy was because of a population imbalance that was shrinking the size of the workforce while the size of the aged population was increasing. To rectify the problem, China needed more people coming into the workforce, hence the to-child policy.  Source: China Daily

China’s Undulating Price Index

Consumer Price Index - Jan-18


Nine months of relatively flat undulations keeps China’s Consumer Price Index off the minds of everyday people. That‘s a good thing for consumerism in that extremes in either direction can make people nervous about spending and we, as marketers, don’t want that to happen.   Source: www.; National Bureau of Statistics of China

On a Four Month Roll

Service Sector-Feb-18


Since October of last year this service sector index has seen an 8.1% increase in its outlook for the future. That sits in contrast to the up and down pattern of the months prior. The rise of the non-manufacturing sector is a sign of China’s ever-maturing economy especially since a significant portion of the manufacturing sector is still State owned. And these data are consistent with the current positive outlook for the world economy.  Source: Markit Economics

January Mobile Subscriptions up 50%

Carrier Data - Jan2018

With the addition of almost 12 million new subscriptions in January, the total mobile subscription base in China can now be rounded to 1.17 billion. Though we see this number range every month, it is still astonishing. January’s increase was 50% above the 7.6 million monthly average for the prior year. It is unlikely that this level of increase can continue going forward.  Sources: China Mobile, China Unicom, China Telecom

All Hail the Chinese Consumer’s Never Ending Desire for Stuff

Retail Sales Growth - Dec-17

Retail sales data is finally in for December 2017 and it comes in at the low end of the range for the last eleven months. Still, it grows as it has ever since June 2014 – the earliest month for which we have records. This speaks to the dependability of the Chinese consumer and their ongoing desire to have stuff as well as the market into which we are selling.  Source: www.; National Bureau of Statistics of China

Manufacturer Data Supports Consumer Behavior

Purchasing Mang Index Jan2018


It is getting boring. All the data emerging from China over the last several months have been steady on the positive side. The Manufacturing Index (PMI) is yet another of those data points that suggest a positive future. This survey of more than 400 manufacturers is not directly reflective of consumers. Still, it’s a positive slant implying that people aren’t losing jobs and wages will remain steady or increase, and that does have an impact on consumer sentiment, which in this case, encourages buying.  Source: Markit Economics

Confidence in the 60th Percentile

Consumer Confidence -Dec2017


Confidence in the 120s suggests Chinese consumers are relatively positive as they look into the future. On this scale, 0 is disaster, 200 is nirvana and 100 is neutral. This level of positivity is in line with other data coming out of China making it believable. As long as the Chinese consumer expresses this kind of confidence they are buyers. Sources:; Nat’l Bureau of Statistics, China

China’s Leading Economic Index Hits its Highest Point in Five Years

Leading Economic Index -Nov 2017

Where most other indices coming out of China are positive and steady, China’s Leading Economic Index hit its peak for the last five years in November. That indicates the positive flow is likely to continue and even improve, which is consistent with indicators in the broader world economy.  Source: National Bureau of Statistics, China